tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-91244753723448080842012-02-16T19:55:56.748-06:00Uzhashttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07039498662779873717noreply@blogger.comBlogger341100tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9124475372344808084.post-3078986726008073092009-09-23T11:47:00.008-05:002009-09-23T13:13:11.934-05:00

Green shoots! Recovery is close! Recession is about to be extinguished by Bernanke's decree.Investments in commercial banks are growing! Do they, really? And what is it that those "investments" do to economy?Let's look at commercial banks loan positions, in particular consumer loans, that is us, struggling to deal with increasing credit card rates and other profit enhancing tricks.May be banks

Uzhashttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07039498662779873717noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9124475372344808084.post-35404264943633466062009-09-11T16:54:00.006-05:002009-09-11T18:43:47.156-05:00

TED spread shrinked down to 16 base points. This is the level of maximum historical placidity of the times untouched by any thought of crisis.This is the level of reckless subprime mortgage lending and junk-bond trading, sorry - CLOs, CDS, SPVs and other financial innovations supposedly reducing the risk of toxic asset down to the safety of gold standard.Is this good news? Is crisis finally over?

Uzhashttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07039498662779873717noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9124475372344808084.post-81767420086998612752009-09-10T15:47:00.009-05:002009-09-10T22:25:27.822-05:00

From Luigi Zingales article http://nationalaffairs.com/publications/detail/capitalism-after-the-crisisTHE FUTURE OF AMERICAN CAPITALISMWe thus stand at a crossroads for American capitalism. One path would channel popular rage into political support for some genuinely pro-market reforms, even if they do not serve the interests of large financial firms. By appealing to the best of the populist

Uzhashttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07039498662779873717noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9124475372344808084.post-49056075974123408792009-08-21T10:40:00.027-05:002009-08-21T19:02:00.711-05:00

In recent weeks markets were under strong tidal waves that left visible indicators barely changed.Something very big was going on undetected during that time.Let's look at some historic graphs, in particular on Dow Jones Industrial daily trading volume.First, take a look at year 2007.The famous "August 2007" peak stands as Mount Kilimanjaro being the first indicator that "shadow banking system"

Uzhashttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07039498662779873717noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9124475372344808084.post-15557225269800340062009-07-22T00:34:00.023-05:002009-07-23T10:51:50.107-05:00

There are few economic indicators as important and precise as VLCC carriers charter rate and related indices. This is basically how much the owners of very big ships get from transporting goods, oil or other cargo.It gives a clear and undistorted picture of demand on the markets right away without all the nonsense about seeing "green shoots" or whatever Feds are smoking. Unfortunately, those

Uzhashttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07039498662779873717noreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9124475372344808084.post-57328719790785743002009-07-07T12:03:00.010-05:002009-07-07T13:47:40.427-05:00

What we see today are just slight tremors before a giant earthquake that would eventually engulf and destroy China.The central government barely controls only few major cities, they don't really know what's going on outside protective borders around guarded city communities. Next 10-15 years are going to be crucial for Han's existence as a nation. Even if they manage to survive during a number of

Uzhashttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07039498662779873717noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9124475372344808084.post-72163812870924464732009-07-07T10:24:00.005-05:002009-07-07T11:12:14.127-05:00

Oil, Gas Market Speculation May Face Restrictions CFTC is reviewing exemptions from position limits for “bona fide hedging,” after seeking public comment on whether the exemption should continue to apply to traders who are in the market for financial reasons, rather than those that actually use the commodity. This is the key point - what exactly qualifies as “bona fide hedging”?The whole reason

Uzhashttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07039498662779873717noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9124475372344808084.post-83244250038529420152009-07-07T01:45:00.007-05:002009-07-07T11:23:52.697-05:00

Richard Hellie, Russian historian, 1937-2009Richard Hellie, a University of Chicago professor and a preeminent scholar of medieval and early modern Russian history, died April 24.Anna Lisa Crone, Expert in Russian Literature, 1946-2009Anna Lisa Crone, Professor of Slavic Languages and Literatures at the University of Chicago, who was widely respected for her ability to elucidate difficult Russian

Uzhashttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07039498662779873717noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9124475372344808084.post-14143593678544331772009-07-06T20:59:00.004-05:002009-07-06T23:07:34.506-05:00

If you are surprised to see the Eye of Providence, the same one printed on the backside of US dollar bill, inside Moscow Kremlin then you know nothing about Russia and its rulers.Although recently renovated and first open to public during inauguration of current President Medvedev the same decor was there during coronation of Russian emperors.The coronation of Russian Emperor Alexander the

Uzhashttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07039498662779873717noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9124475372344808084.post-62213342319910670392009-07-06T12:56:00.009-05:002009-07-06T14:58:31.543-05:00

Wife blows MI6 chief’s cover on Facebookintelligence chief’s brother-in-law, who holidayed with him last month, is an associate of David Irving, the controversial right-wing historianIn case you ever wondered why all those marginal freaks feeding the most idiotic conspiracy theories to the public are doing it so blatantly. You try to launch one of those and just see what happens - precisely

Uzhashttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07039498662779873717noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9124475372344808084.post-68554031102335473562009-07-06T01:03:00.011-05:002009-07-06T01:38:17.942-05:00

Currency Funds Crushed on Dearth of Market TrendsFX Concepts Inc., the world’s largest currency hedge fund, says it lost 5.4 percent in this year’s first five months. John W. Henry & Co.’s foreign-exchange fund told investors it lost 2 percent, after 2008’s 76 percent gain, the best since its 1986 launching.Both use computer models to spot currency trends and, along with other momentum chasers,

Uzhashttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07039498662779873717noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9124475372344808084.post-54675800781809727452009-07-05T22:39:00.011-05:002009-07-06T13:56:01.025-05:00

President Obama departed on a trip to Mordor.If I had a power to intervene I would never let Obama go into such despicable country to meet with such despicable people.There can be no dialog possible between decaying zombies and the best hope for the future humankind ever had.Unless, of course, you are capable to make Zombie Dream come true."A DREAMI fancied I was somewhere in Russia, in the wilds

Uzhashttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07039498662779873717noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9124475372344808084.post-60629468435096874442009-07-05T13:45:00.005-05:002009-07-05T14:00:27.311-05:00

Orange jumpsuit would make Sarah look even cuter, I think...There could be time enough for stretching and skin showing in some maximum security federal prison.It is still a possibility, but Sarah is definitely not willing to take her chance and would do anything to avoid that.But enough silliness, it is actually quite interesting.During recent few weeks we had Hillary Clinton suffering an

Uzhashttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07039498662779873717noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9124475372344808084.post-42559629357220268352009-07-05T10:50:00.010-05:002009-07-06T10:25:05.583-05:00

Managers Bemoan Loss of Easy MoneyPrivate Equity Sidelined, Price Floor GoneMutual-fund managers, especially those with a value-stock approach, said tighter credit has had such an effect on the market that it has changed the way they look at stocks.The issue, said managers, is that so much cheap money headed to private-equity firms in recent years that it allowed the firms to buy up companies if

Uzhashttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07039498662779873717noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9124475372344808084.post-31171849285548909932009-06-30T16:02:00.006-05:002009-07-01T02:35:46.439-05:00

Bloomberg, June 30.Goldman Sachs Group Inc. exited a bet that the Canadian dollar would strengthen versus the Mexican peso after the trade lost about 5 percent.“Recent data points have gone against our fundamental views of continued stabilization in Canada and a lagging recovery in Mexico, relative to the global cycle,” analysts at Goldman Sachs wrote today in a note, citing worse-than-expected

Uzhashttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07039498662779873717noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9124475372344808084.post-9530975768628822442009-06-29T16:56:00.021-05:002009-06-30T12:15:05.216-05:00

Boston Globe, December 20, 2008Prominent MIT, Harvard benefactor to close"The unfolding scandal surrounding the alleged Ponzi scheme run by Bernard L. Madoff yesterday claimed as a victim one of the largest foundations in the country, which has funded groundbreaking brain research at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and diabetes research at Harvard Medical School."Please, don't start

Uzhashttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07039498662779873717noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9124475372344808084.post-2321984927386545642009-06-28T12:01:00.004-05:002009-06-28T12:49:34.769-05:00

"At around 5:30am on June 27, an unoccupied building still under construction at Lianhuanan Road in the Minxing district of Shanghai city toppled over." "Amidst global economic recession and financial-market fragility, net private capital inflows to developing countries fell to $707 billion in 2008, a sharp drop from a peak of $1.2 trillion in 2007. International capital flows are projected to

Uzhashttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07039498662779873717noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9124475372344808084.post-17897699985197455692009-06-26T12:39:00.012-05:002009-06-26T23:59:09.328-05:00

MR. GIBBS: I'm in the tank at 7:20 p.m. Just one quick announcement. During his upcoming trip to Russia, on July 7, the President will give a speech at the commencement of the New Economic School in Moscow. The speech will be an opportunity for President Obama to discuss areas of mutual interest between the United States and Russia such as nonproliferation, global security, and economic

Uzhashttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07039498662779873717noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9124475372344808084.post-91918360879722685932009-06-26T10:29:00.011-05:002009-06-26T17:01:07.306-05:00

The Department of Commerce released Personal Income and Outlays report today. It couldn't possibly be worse for those economists who pitched a "stimulus" package to Obama's administration. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased: April: $140 billion, or +1.3% May: $178.1 billion, or +1.6%. Both April and May changes in disposable personal income (DPI) – personal income less personal current

Uzhashttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07039498662779873717noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9124475372344808084.post-47678590448175197722009-06-12T18:35:00.006-05:002009-06-12T19:08:51.181-05:00

Some time ago, on May 5. 2009, I wrote a comment titled "Bulldozing Foreclosed"See,http://uzhas.blogspot.com/2009/05/bulldozing-foreclosed.htmlToday, a top story on DrudgeReport (with, of course, usual anti-Obama slant) is OBAMA ERA: BULLDOZE SHRINKING CITIES?Here is a link to the article cited:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/5516536/

Uzhashttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07039498662779873717noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9124475372344808084.post-23056625986857772202009-06-10T22:32:00.006-05:002009-06-24T08:06:00.244-05:00

This part in my series about the Oil Non-bubble is dedicated to so-called CGE (computable general equilibrium) models, that are considered to be "economic" models mostly by people who are not professional academic economists.Such models are used by multiple government agencies in US and OECD to "predict" or as they say "provide an outlook" on energy sector dynamics as well. Professional

Uzhashttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07039498662779873717noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9124475372344808084.post-41481974143531666472009-05-10T23:42:00.011-05:002009-05-11T00:19:41.096-05:00

I would like to interrupt a story about oil non-bubble to make a short comment about so-called Supervisory Capital Assessment Program (SCAP). There is an "r" missing in this term obviously. There are "toxic assets" and scrap is the measure of how much you can recycle of them, right? Fed's are nothing but logical in their acronyms, it is not their fault that most of them somehow are waste

Uzhashttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07039498662779873717noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9124475372344808084.post-42422827084225078312009-05-08T14:59:00.017-05:002009-05-08T16:59:50.288-05:00

The second part of this story as well as the title of series is dedicated to Paul Krugman, who is a 2008 Nobel Prize winner in Economics as well as prolific columnist.Let's start with first quote from Krugman's columns, dated May 12, 2008:“I also take seriously Goldman’s recent warning that the price could go to $200.But let’s drop all the talk about an oil bubble.”What strange here is not how

Uzhashttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07039498662779873717noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9124475372344808084.post-29130661119330155662009-05-06T10:40:00.011-05:002009-05-08T17:00:23.687-05:00

Using the simple economic model discussed in previous post we can also understand what was going on during speculative oil bubble which ended in 2008. In this case oil is partially a consumption good, but it is also an investment good."Depreciation" in this case would correspond to physical oil consumption per year, the stock of oil will be determined by past stock plus investments to get more

Uzhashttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07039498662779873717noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9124475372344808084.post-65991322711443493552009-05-05T19:18:00.009-05:002009-05-05T19:46:48.015-05:00

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124148169574985359.htmlNo Sale: Bank Wrecks New HousesA Texas bank is about done demolishing 16 new and partially built houses acquired in Southern California through foreclosure, figuring it was better to knock them down than to try selling them in the depressed housing market.This is actually the best possible solution for all "subprime" related problems.Let me

Uzhashttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07039498662779873717noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9124475372344808084.post-51178134058055071142009-05-05T11:35:00.007-05:002009-05-05T17:22:11.009-05:00

The bust of Queen Nefertiti housed in a Berlin museum and believed to be 3,400 years old in fact is a copy dating from 1912 that was made to test pigments used by the ancient Egyptians.It is important to keep in mind that any historic evidence prior to thirteen or fourteen century in Europe or nineteen century elsewhere is highly unreliable and most likely eventually will turned out to be a fake

Uzhashttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07039498662779873717noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9124475372344808084.post-18859738803665317812009-05-04T09:26:00.004-05:002009-05-04T22:26:57.209-05:00

President Barack Obama is about to launch the most challenging initiative of his administration on stopping tax loopholes for corporations that allow them to use so-called "globalization" to avoid paying domestic taxes. We, Americans, should all pray that he succeeds in this challenge. Most of you reading this are probably brainwashed by mainstream introductory courses in economics. Those courses

Uzhashttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07039498662779873717noreply@blogger.com20tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9124475372344808084.post-76211025356560852682009-05-01T10:25:00.012-05:002009-05-01T11:36:42.734-05:00

The average rate of a 30-year mortgage dropped to 4.78 percent, the lowest in records dating to 1970, said mortgage guarantor Freddie Mac.Mortgage rates at or near four-decade lows are raising optimism that lower home-loan costs might spur home buying. That's unfortunately only part of the story. Low interest rates by themselves are neither good or bad, there is a second component however.You

Uzhashttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07039498662779873717noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9124475372344808084.post-30345652959926410102009-04-30T08:12:00.006-05:002009-04-30T09:24:01.855-05:00

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124092907556063695.htmlMr. Palmisano said IBM continues to spend heavily on research and development and is building a new business around "analytics and optimization" -- the field of improving customers' operations based on measurements of various processes, including electric-power transmission and securities trading.He said IBM expects to hire up to 4,000

Uzhashttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07039498662779873717noreply@blogger.com20tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9124475372344808084.post-14963203403099599872009-04-28T16:06:00.009-05:002009-04-28T16:42:01.432-05:00

One of the favorite topics in conservative newspaper economics is to prove how bad in general are taxes for economy.Let's consider typical argument in particular case of tax influence on risk taking, see for details "Taxes and Business Strategy" (4th edition, 2009) by Sholes, Wolfson, Erickson, Maydew, and Shevlin. The argument goes as follows.Taxes are by nature a convex function of income, that

Uzhashttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07039498662779873717noreply@blogger.com16tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9124475372344808084.post-79064133775375217462009-04-28T00:03:00.009-05:002009-04-28T00:57:24.882-05:00

So, let me get it straight.You have to literally jump into a hole filled with fecal matter. And you have to do it voluntarily.You have to beg. You have to be severely beaten and humiliated. Your mother has to be killed while you are watching.The love of your life has to be deflowered by your brother who doesn't even want her very much.And then she will be raped by the worst scum on Earth you can

Uzhashttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07039498662779873717noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9124475372344808084.post-68614788769463414492009-04-27T12:09:00.013-05:002009-04-27T15:26:23.605-05:00

Continuing from Saturday, April 25, 2009 post, I'll elaborate more on implicit collusion between big Wall Street insiders and the government during Hank Paulson's (better be called "Goldman Sachs proxy") reign of financial terror.First of all, good news: April 27 -- Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Sheila Bair urged limits on the size of financial firms to help avoid forcing government

Uzhashttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07039498662779873717noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9124475372344808084.post-68189855043644715422009-04-25T21:43:00.011-05:002009-05-07T12:19:07.958-05:00

Here I apply a structural model to check the health of financial institutions and to determine the probability of default at a given time.First, I analyze the case of two institutions who already defaulted.At the day of Bear Stearns collapse default probability for Bear Stearns reached 26% according to the model, while Lehman kept what is basically a triple-A (very low) default level. On the day

Uzhashttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07039498662779873717noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9124475372344808084.post-56332234510070427872009-04-23T11:28:00.013-05:002009-05-07T13:32:47.273-05:00

"You have been retained by the US Government to figure out some key issues related tothe current financial crisis."This is how the final exam at Booth School of Business might start. In fact it just did, in Pietro Veronesi's "Mathematical Models of ..." class.Here are some of the interesting points from this exam that I've found, which are closely related to US banks "stress-testing" that US

Uzhashttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07039498662779873717noreply@blogger.com1